A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
